By
now we all know that the CNFLE is without a shadow of doubt the most
competitive fantasy football league this side of Sacramento, however
just how many points does it take to win a game in the CNFLE? Take a
guess before you go any further.
Remember
that number.
Through
the first seven weeks of the CNFLE IV campaign the average score for
the team that won was 115 points. (Calc A). I bet that was pretty
near to your guess. However, the actual figure for the average weekly
score required to win a game (Calc B) in the CNFLE IV is only
95.5points, significantly less than the winners score average.
Surprising
huh! So then, bearing that number in mind you may not be totally
surprised to know that three teams have scored more points that that
average winning score yet still managed to lose more than the other
nine CNFLE franchises. Ttttaylor, Fear Factory and Hairy Frog Disco
are the three members of that unwanted club. the number of games they
have dropped, despite posting scores above the League average, is
three.
Now
it should come as no surprise that Ttttaylor and Disco are on that
list as they have accrued more losses than anyone else so far this
season, however Coach Botond in the South has only lost three games
so far this season in total, each one despite scoring higher than the
league average. Unlucky? Pundits have suggested he could be 7&0?
So read on.
On
the flip side of that equation, we should also ask, ‘which are the
teams that have won the most despite scoring less than the league
average winning score? Well strange you should enquire but two teams
are tied with two wins apiece. Seventy Nine FC and (you’ve guessed
it) Coach Botond’s Fear Factory. Lucky? On the basis that all
things are equal in the world of statistics the Factory should
therefore stand at a theoretical 5-2.
It
seems that the CNFLE Gods are inclined to take with one hand yet give
it back in equal measure with the other.
Print
it… It’s a fact
*
Calc A has been calculated by adding up all the winners scores and
dividing by the total number of games
*
Calc B has been calculated from the losers score +1 point divided by
the total number of games
GAME
OF THE WEEK
FEAR
FACTORY (4-3) v AUTOPICK WARRIORS (4-3)
 |
| Fantasy Pts. Like manna from heaven. |
All
time series record : Warriors lead 2-0
Last
time out : Factory 78 – 104 Royale
Fear
factory jumped from 3rd
to 1st
in the South which is the tightest division of the lot after beating
the Swedes last week. Some pundits have suggested that with a little
bit of luck they could be 7&0, but by the same token they could
well be 2&5. Every time the Warriors seem to be making progress
they inexplicably falter. Last week Coach Conor’s boys almost
clawed back a 28 point deficit on the Rocks, falling just short to
drop to 4 & 3. Or was that Coach Cullen? It’s difficult to
tell.
Despite
the Saints woeful early season form, Drew Brees is doing his best to
keep them in the hunt for playoff glory. The same can be said for
Fear Factory as the regular 30+ points returned from the veteran gun
slinger is like manna from heaven. Denver has a good pass defence,
but Brees should still prosper. For the Warriors, Rivers has been
inconsistent at best, but has a good matchup against the Browns, who
despite having Joe Haden back up to speed have been leaky of late.
EDGE : FACTORY
The
running back position has been one of woe for the Factory this
season, as soon as Jackson went down early in the season it sent
Botond scrambling onto the waiver wire. This week fab Freddie is on a
bye which means that the Botond backfield consists of the
unpredictable Leshoure and the limited Green. Leshoure has the
potential but not the matchup this week whilst Green Bay Green has
the matchup, although word to the wise, the Jags held D-Mac to a
neglible amount of yards last time out. Once more the byes have
deprived the Autopicks of a stellar performer with elite back Ray
Rice riding the pine for week 8. In will come one of the Steelers
back as cover with Dwyer looking the most likely due to injury to
Mendenhall and Redman. Mathews has a good looking matchup against the
Browns and due to the fact that he is the lone bright spark in a pair
of bleak backfields give the Warriors the edge. EDGE : WARRIORS
Garcons
toe has ruled him out for week 8 and waiver wire wizard Hawkins is on
a bye which has forced Botond’s hand somewhat and reinstates the
Double Big D formation with week one wonder Ogletree to partner
‘Bionic’ Miles Austin. Both could see a lot of looks as Dallas
will surely be throwing the ball long and often when they fall behind
against a resurgent Giants team. Marshall has a fantastic matchup
against Carolina as the Bears look strong this year. Once again the
Warriors are missing a key component as League leading receiver AJ
Green sits this one out. At the time of going to press, the
Autopick’s have not yet secured a replacement however Fitzgerald
and Bowe are more than capabale of sharing the load. The receiving
corps has been the strength of the Autopicks outfit but Fitz’s
matchup against the Niners secondary doesn’t look too appetizing
this week. EDGE : FACTORY
It’s
Veterans Day at the tight end position, so get the Zimmerframes out
and make sure all the vegetables are suitably mashed as Gates and
Gonzo drag their weary bodies off the gurneys to face each other
again. Two of the undisputed greats of the position, Gates has been a
little quiet this season but still carries big play potential. Gonzo
however has had a stellar start to the 2012 campaign. Both have tasty
matchups but Gonzo’s consistent performances thus far earn him a
clear edge. EDGE : WARRIORS
Giants
kicker Tynes is the position leader through seven weeks and should
get plenty of opportunities to score this week. Botond keeps faith
with the Cardinals defence which has been nothing short of
sensational so far. This week the Phoenix flyers face divisional foe
the 49ers in what has become the Division of Defence in the NFL. It
will be a tight game that’s for sure. Raiders kicker Janikowski is
always one of those players in demand but can be frustrating due to
his lack of opportunity for a points and win shy franchise. Last week
the Warriors needed almost 30 points from the Bears match to clutch a
victory from the jaws of defeat. Not only was it considered a
possibility but it almost happened. With defensive scores of 27pts,
38pts and now 20pts in the last 3 weeks a matchup against Carolina
looks more than appealing, it looks like a massacre! EDGE : WARRIORS
With
both teams needing a win to stretch their win loss record to 5-3, the
Warriors simply have to win this one to keep any hopes of divisional
success alive however the loss of both Green and Rice will weigh
heavily on their big score potential. We expect Brees to click into
gear and despite a non existent running effort the Factory will take
this one just in spite of the Bears posting a massive defensive
total.
VERDICT
: FACTORY BY 3
WEST
COAST MAFIA (3-4) v PAULS POLARBEARS (6-1)
 |
| The stars are aligned for Coach Cullen. |
All
time series record : Mafia lead 1-0
Last
time out : Dnickman 151 – 107 Baptists
After
two straight wins, the volume button has been turned up on the
Vancouver channel as Coach Cullen has wasted no time in letting
everyone know that he is back. Posting consecutive scores in excess
of 130 suggests that there is some substance to all the noise,
however the real test awaits this week as they face the Polarbears
who have only dropped one loss all season and who contested a real
humdinger with the Disco eventually running out victors by 3 points.
No
major bye week issues for the Mafia this time round means that it is
almost a full strength team for week 8 aside from the Jets coming in
for the Ravens. No biggie there then. But hold the back page, it
seems that the Mafia have finally lost patience with Romo as the
erratic Cowboy gunslinger makes way for stellar performer from week 7
Josh Freeman. Nelson has a great matchup against a hapless Jags
defence and Coach Cullen will be hoping that the Tampa tandem is in
full effect again this week as Jackson squares up to a Vikes D which
has been a solid performer. Can CJ2K repeat last weeks heroics? Well
he does have a favourable matchup this week but has probably done
enough in his own mind now to deserve a little snooze?
Did
Denarius Moore’s late game heroics merely paper over the ever
widening cracks in the Bears recent repertoire or was it a healthy
indicator of how they fight, fight, fight to the bitter end? Whatever
it shows, there is certainly no room for sentiment in Coach Paul’s
camp as the hero of last week, Moore, has been unceremoniously dumped
of the bears bench for week 8 making way for speed sensation Cobb who
has rendered Jennings groin moot in Green Bay. Manning has struggled
in recent weeks but still finds a way to win but don’t expect too
much from the two time Superbowl winner this week against a decent
Dallas secondary in the Jerrydome. Aside from the receivers and with
Foster riding the pine, it looks a little thin for Bear Bryant this
week.
With
the undisputed lead of the Central on the line, and with Houston on a
bye, the stars are aligned for Coach Cullen to reel off his third
straight and become only the second team to down the Bears. With both
victories coming in the past three weeks and the win in between
against a pathetic Disco performance, is this a Polarbear wobble or
the start of a spectacular collapse?
VERDICT
: MAFIA BY 13
TTTTAYLOR
(1-6) v SUPER SWEDES (4-3)
 |
| Coach Peter. |
All
time series record : Swedes lead 2-0
Last
time out : Ttttaylor 86 – 110 Swedes
Ttttaylor
hates losing, the Swedes have publicly stated they hate losing, we
all hate losing, but someone from these two will have to lose.
Ttttaylor arrives on the back of a new low after losing to the ‘8
men out’ of Seventy Nine FC, whilst Coach Peter lost to a resurgent
Fear Factory despite scoring more than the required CNFLE average.
Ttttaylor are surely now playing for pride, but not so fast, they,
like the Swedes are only two games off first place so a win for
either here could prove to be just the ticket required to take the
trip to Glorysville.
Ryan
and Jones return to Ttttaylors team, but have a tough matchup this
week against an Eagles D which is playing well against opponents at
least until the fourth quarter anyways. Charles also makes his return
and has a tempting game lined up against the Raiders although the
last stud who faced the black and silver went home on a cart! Kenny
Britt returned to full practice and he and Cook both have an
opportunity against the Colts this week although much will depend on
how CJ2K fares.
With
Baltimore and Cincy both on byes the Swedes hand is forced somewhat
and Stafford makes his return despite having a tough matchup against
Seattle. McGahee returns for Green Ellis which is an upgrade on
recent performances. Reggie Wayne is red hot and has developed a keen
chemistry with rookie QB Luck and Thomas could be in line for a great
night against a New Orleans D that hasn’t improved despite the bye
week reconditioning. Gronk heads for jolly old London and will hope
to give the Old Englanders something to cheer about.
The
season can’t really get any worse for our reigning champ, however
if results go the right way this week they could conceivably be only
one game behind the leader in the Central. The same could be said for
the Swedes who currently prop up the North despite posting a record
that would have them clear in the Central. In a game that’s tighter
than expected it’s the Swedes that regain momentum however.
VERDICT
: SWEDES BY 6
HAIRY
FROG DISCO (2-5) v BENCH WARMERS (4-3)
 |
| Is Coach Calum on his way to Wembley? |
All
time series record : Disco lead 2-0
Last
time out : Disco 104 – 100 Riggins
It
seems that the Disco may have given up the ghost on this season after
another heartbreaking defeat, this time to the Polarbears. Before
this season started the Disco had never lost a game to an opponent
from the North, this year they are two played and two lost. A matchup
against the Riggins team is always keenly fought however and after
scoring a record losing score in week 6 the Riggins boys earned their
W with a modest 100 point tally last week. As the highest scorers in
the League they currently average 116.5 points per game.
Injuries
have put paid to the Disco chances several times this season so in
order to combat that recurring issue Headcoach Calum enlists the help
of… Greg Jennings? Go figure. It’s a move that smacks of
desperation. Murray is still out and Felix Jones is banged up so the
former playoff coach turns to St Louis second string Daryl Richardson
to inject some fresh impetus into the season. It’s a sorry state of
affairs when the loss of the Houston defence threatens to derail
their challenge this week.
Riggins
have some minor bye week issues as Spiller takes to the Warmers
chair, however in comes Bush and Turner who have both been productive
so far this season although Turner does have a tough matchup against
the Beagles. Rodgers will torch the Jags all day long if the Coaches
don’t decide to go easy on the London bound franchise. Floyd will
return to face the Browns and Bryant and Cruz will go head to head at
Texas stadium in the big NFE East matchup. Question marks still
surround what measures Coach Richard will take to mitigate the loss
of Davis to a season ending toe injury.
It
is reported that both Coaches will be talent spotting at Wembley this
weekend which may affect their chances of making last minute changes.
Only a fool would back the Disco against the red hot Riggins boys and
this week I ain’t no fool. Although it should be noted that if
results go the way of the Hairies they could only be one game off the
lead!
VERDICT
: RIGGINS BY 7
FRENCH
LEADER (4-3) v IT’S A LOTTERY (3-4)
 |
| Coach Andy. Not happy. |
All
time series record : Leader leads 2-0
Last
time out : Leader 96 – 89 Lottery
Both
teams come into week 8 looking to make amends for choking on the
rarified air associated with first place after losing their week 7
matchups. Leader was humbled by an in form Mafia whilst the Lottery
cursed the fates that gave them hope with the excellent form of MJD
before swiftly taking it away on a medikart!
The
big worry for the Frenchman going into this matchup is the dubious
form of stand out wide receiver, Megatron. Not only is he off the
pace but he missed practice early in the week due to a sore knee. Big
Ben returns to the line up after missing last week and has an
outstanding opportunity to heap some massive points onto the board
against a sometime shambolic Redskins secondary. AP will look to
cement his recovery from cruciate agony with a good performance
against the Bucs and the Seahawks will prove to be too strong for the
Detroit offence.
With
MJD out, William Powell retains his spot albeit not down to his week
7 performance but to the fact that Coach Andy has not got a better
option. Surely he will raid the waiver wire later this week? Manning
Snr is back from his break and will look to torch the Saints. Shady
McCoy will be given the ball at least 20 times as the Eagles will run
the ball against the Falcons to keep Falcons signal caller Matty on
Ice. Welker will be in London and will look for repeat of his
previous visit. If Big Ben goes long then Wallace could be the target
so it could be a double whammy against Washington this week.
With
Steven Jackson on a timeshare and the potential for Megatron to face
the fearless French defence much will depend on Big Ben. However with
the Lottery owning two of the Steeler receivers French points count
for nowt as Lottery pinch join in the fun. Manning will prove he
still has it…. Again!
VERDICT
: LOTTERY BY 13
SEVENTY
NINE FC (4-3) v BONE ROCKS (3-4)
 |
| Hilton. An interesting selection. |
All
time series record : Series tied 1-1
Last
time out : Niners 82 – 89 Boners
After
receiving an official warning for not fielding a full team against
Ttttaylor despite posting the win Coach Martin will need to make sure
that there are no infringements this time round. Coach Lars, despite
being ranked dead last in multiple measurable statistical categories
is still top of the Central after beating the erratic Warriors
posting an unusually high 100 points last week.
The
Seventy Nine FC roadshow comes to London this week and Terrific Tom
will look to show the Great British public that he has lost none of
his talent by pulling the wool over the eyes of the Rams secondary
implementing Bills tricky gameplan. Morris has been a revelation for
the Redskins but may find it tougher this week against a sturdy
Steelers front seven. Richardson insists he will play despite his
niggle. TJ Hilton is an interesting selection this week against the
Titans.
It’s
difficult to understand just how the Rocks are doing it, but doing it
they certainly are. Fig Newton will find it tough this week against a
savage Bears D. Greene will also find it tough this week against
improved Fins play calling and Gore will be in a battle of the
trenches in Phoenix. On the plus side the 49ers should limit a
limited cards offence and James Jones will see plenty of action now
the cat is out of the bag on Cobb.
This
matchup is difficult to predict mainly due to the fact that both
teams tend to score small but still win! This week it’s the turn of
the Boners to take the glory in a match that Riggins alone will score
more than.
VERDICT
: BONES BY 4
Wins
for Factory, Mafia, Swedes, Riggins, Lottery and Rocks brings the
Bears back to within one game in the North, the Central is a three
way tie at .500 and the factory take sole possession of top spot in
the South.
Don’t
shoot the messenger.
Just
the facts ma’am.
Talking
of which, it should be noted that despite reports to the contrary,
and the fact we are always happy to take undeserved credit, a full
house, clean sweep in the picks was not in fact achieved last week as
the decision to plump for the Lottery in last weeks Game of the Week
was in fact undone by MJD hobbling off after two plays. Another black
mark for Jim I am afraid.
Latest
odds supplied by Vasco De Gama
Pauls
Polarbears 5-6
Tim
Riggins Bench Warmers 5-4
Fear
Factory 7-4
Super
Swedes 2-1
West
Coast mafia 2-1
It’s
a Lottery 3-1
Autopick
Warriors 7-2
French
Leader 4-1
Bone
Rocks 6-1
Seventy
Nine FC 6-1
Hairy
Frog Disco 25-1
Ttttaylor 33-1
