REMEMBER THAT NUMBER

By now we all know that the CNFLE is without a shadow of doubt the most competitive fantasy football league this side of Sacramento, however just how many points does it take to win a game in the CNFLE? Take a guess before you go any further.

Remember that number.

Through the first seven weeks of the CNFLE IV campaign the average score for the team that won was 115 points. (Calc A). I bet that was pretty near to your guess. However, the actual figure for the average weekly score required to win a game (Calc B) in the CNFLE IV is only 95.5points, significantly less than the winners score average.

Surprising huh! So then, bearing that number in mind you may not be totally surprised to know that three teams have scored more points that that average winning score yet still managed to lose more than the other nine CNFLE franchises. Ttttaylor, Fear Factory and Hairy Frog Disco are the three members of that unwanted club. the number of games they have dropped, despite posting scores above the League average, is three.

Now it should come as no surprise that Ttttaylor and Disco are on that list as they have accrued more losses than anyone else so far this season, however Coach Botond in the South has only lost three games so far this season in total, each one despite scoring higher than the league average. Unlucky? Pundits have suggested he could be 7&0? So read on.

On the flip side of that equation, we should also ask, ‘which are the teams that have won the most despite scoring less than the league average winning score? Well strange you should enquire but two teams are tied with two wins apiece. Seventy Nine FC and (you’ve guessed it) Coach Botond’s Fear Factory. Lucky? On the basis that all things are equal in the world of statistics the Factory should therefore stand at a theoretical 5-2.

It seems that the CNFLE Gods are inclined to take with one hand yet give it back in equal measure with the other.

Print it… It’s a fact

* Calc A has been calculated by adding up all the winners scores and dividing by the total number of games

* Calc B has been calculated from the losers score +1 point divided by the total number of games

GAME OF THE WEEK

FEAR FACTORY (4-3) v AUTOPICK WARRIORS (4-3)

Fantasy Pts.  Like manna from heaven.

All time series record : Warriors lead 2-0

Last time out : Factory 78 – 104 Royale

Fear factory jumped from 3^rd to 1^st in the South which is the tightest division of the lot after beating the Swedes last week. Some pundits have suggested that with a little bit of luck they could be 7&0, but by the same token they could well be 2&5. Every time the Warriors seem to be making progress they inexplicably falter. Last week Coach Conor’s boys almost clawed back a 28 point deficit on the Rocks, falling just short to drop to 4 & 3. Or was that Coach Cullen? It’s difficult to tell.

Despite the Saints woeful early season form, Drew Brees is doing his best to keep them in the hunt for playoff glory. The same can be said for Fear Factory as the regular 30+ points returned from the veteran gun slinger is like manna from heaven. Denver has a good pass defence, but Brees should still prosper. For the Warriors, Rivers has been inconsistent at best, but has a good matchup against the Browns, who despite having Joe Haden back up to speed have been leaky of late. EDGE : FACTORY

The running back position has been one of woe for the Factory this season, as soon as Jackson went down early in the season it sent Botond scrambling onto the waiver wire. This week fab Freddie is on a bye which means that the Botond backfield consists of the unpredictable Leshoure and the limited Green. Leshoure has the potential but not the matchup this week whilst Green Bay Green has the matchup, although word to the wise, the Jags held D-Mac to a neglible amount of yards last time out. Once more the byes have deprived the Autopicks of a stellar performer with elite back Ray Rice riding the pine for week 8. In will come one of the Steelers back as cover with Dwyer looking the most likely due to injury to Mendenhall and Redman. Mathews has a good looking matchup against the Browns and due to the fact that he is the lone bright spark in a pair of bleak backfields give the Warriors the edge. EDGE : WARRIORS

Garcons toe has ruled him out for week 8 and waiver wire wizard Hawkins is on a bye which has forced Botond’s hand somewhat and reinstates the Double Big D formation with week one wonder Ogletree to partner ‘Bionic’ Miles Austin. Both could see a lot of looks as Dallas will surely be throwing the ball long and often when they fall behind against a resurgent Giants team. Marshall has a fantastic matchup against Carolina as the Bears look strong this year. Once again the Warriors are missing a key component as League leading receiver AJ Green sits this one out. At the time of going to press, the Autopick’s have not yet secured a replacement however Fitzgerald and Bowe are more than capabale of sharing the load. The receiving corps has been the strength of the Autopicks outfit but Fitz’s matchup against the Niners secondary doesn’t look too appetizing this week. EDGE : FACTORY

It’s Veterans Day at the tight end position, so get the Zimmerframes out and make sure all the vegetables are suitably mashed as Gates and Gonzo drag their weary bodies off the gurneys to face each other again. Two of the undisputed greats of the position, Gates has been a little quiet this season but still carries big play potential. Gonzo however has had a stellar start to the 2012 campaign. Both have tasty matchups but Gonzo’s consistent performances thus far earn him a clear edge. EDGE : WARRIORS

Giants kicker Tynes is the position leader through seven weeks and should get plenty of opportunities to score this week. Botond keeps faith with the Cardinals defence which has been nothing short of sensational so far. This week the Phoenix flyers face divisional foe the 49ers in what has become the Division of Defence in the NFL. It will be a tight game that’s for sure. Raiders kicker Janikowski is always one of those players in demand but can be frustrating due to his lack of opportunity for a points and win shy franchise. Last week the Warriors needed almost 30 points from the Bears match to clutch a victory from the jaws of defeat. Not only was it considered a possibility but it almost happened. With defensive scores of 27pts, 38pts and now 20pts in the last 3 weeks a matchup against Carolina looks more than appealing, it looks like a massacre! EDGE : WARRIORS

With both teams needing a win to stretch their win loss record to 5-3, the Warriors simply have to win this one to keep any hopes of divisional success alive however the loss of both Green and Rice will weigh heavily on their big score potential. We expect Brees to click into gear and despite a non existent running effort the Factory will take this one just in spite of the Bears posting a massive defensive total.

VERDICT : FACTORY BY 3

WEST COAST MAFIA (3-4) v PAULS POLARBEARS (6-1) 

The stars are aligned for Coach Cullen.

 

All time series record : Mafia lead 1-0

Last time out : Dnickman 151 – 107 Baptists

After two straight wins, the volume button has been turned up on the Vancouver channel as Coach Cullen has wasted no time in letting everyone know that he is back. Posting consecutive scores in excess of 130 suggests that there is some substance to all the noise, however the real test awaits this week as they face the Polarbears who have only dropped one loss all season and who contested a real humdinger with the Disco eventually running out victors by 3 points.

No major bye week issues for the Mafia this time round means that it is almost a full strength team for week 8 aside from the Jets coming in for the Ravens. No biggie there then. But hold the back page, it seems that the Mafia have finally lost patience with Romo as the erratic Cowboy gunslinger makes way for stellar performer from week 7 Josh Freeman. Nelson has a great matchup against a hapless Jags defence and Coach Cullen will be hoping that the Tampa tandem is in full effect again this week as Jackson squares up to a Vikes D which has been a solid performer. Can CJ2K repeat last weeks heroics? Well he does have a favourable matchup this week but has probably done enough in his own mind now to deserve a little snooze?

Did Denarius Moore’s late game heroics merely paper over the ever widening cracks in the Bears recent repertoire or was it a healthy indicator of how they fight, fight, fight to the bitter end? Whatever it shows, there is certainly no room for sentiment in Coach Paul’s camp as the hero of last week, Moore, has been unceremoniously dumped of the bears bench for week 8 making way for speed sensation Cobb who has rendered Jennings groin moot in Green Bay. Manning has struggled in recent weeks but still finds a way to win but don’t expect too much from the two time Superbowl winner this week against a decent Dallas secondary in the Jerrydome. Aside from the receivers and with Foster riding the pine, it looks a little thin for Bear Bryant this week.

With the undisputed lead of the Central on the line, and with Houston on a bye, the stars are aligned for Coach Cullen to reel off his third straight and become only the second team to down the Bears. With both victories coming in the past three weeks and the win in between against a pathetic Disco performance, is this a Polarbear wobble or the start of a spectacular collapse?

VERDICT : MAFIA BY 13

TTTTAYLOR (1-6) v SUPER SWEDES (4-3) 

Coach Peter.

 

All time series record : Swedes lead 2-0

Last time out : Ttttaylor 86 – 110 Swedes

Ttttaylor hates losing, the Swedes have publicly stated they hate losing, we all hate losing, but someone from these two will have to lose. Ttttaylor arrives on the back of a new low after losing to the ‘8 men out’ of Seventy Nine FC, whilst Coach Peter lost to a resurgent Fear Factory despite scoring more than the required CNFLE average. Ttttaylor are surely now playing for pride, but not so fast, they, like the Swedes are only two games off first place so a win for either here could prove to be just the ticket required to take the trip to Glorysville.

Ryan and Jones return to Ttttaylors team, but have a tough matchup this week against an Eagles D which is playing well against opponents at least until the fourth quarter anyways. Charles also makes his return and has a tempting game lined up against the Raiders although the last stud who faced the black and silver went home on a cart! Kenny Britt returned to full practice and he and Cook both have an opportunity against the Colts this week although much will depend on how CJ2K fares.

With Baltimore and Cincy both on byes the Swedes hand is forced somewhat and Stafford makes his return despite having a tough matchup against Seattle. McGahee returns for Green Ellis which is an upgrade on recent performances. Reggie Wayne is red hot and has developed a keen chemistry with rookie QB Luck and Thomas could be in line for a great night against a New Orleans D that hasn’t improved despite the bye week reconditioning. Gronk heads for jolly old London and will hope to give the Old Englanders something to cheer about.

The season can’t really get any worse for our reigning champ, however if results go the right way this week they could conceivably be only one game behind the leader in the Central. The same could be said for the Swedes who currently prop up the North despite posting a record that would have them clear in the Central. In a game that’s tighter than expected it’s the Swedes that regain momentum however.

VERDICT : SWEDES BY 6

HAIRY FROG DISCO (2-5) v BENCH WARMERS (4-3)

Is Coach Calum on his way to Wembley?

All time series record : Disco lead 2-0

Last time out : Disco 104 – 100 Riggins

It seems that the Disco may have given up the ghost on this season after another heartbreaking defeat, this time to the Polarbears. Before this season started the Disco had never lost a game to an opponent from the North, this year they are two played and two lost. A matchup against the Riggins team is always keenly fought however and after scoring a record losing score in week 6 the Riggins boys earned their W with a modest 100 point tally last week. As the highest scorers in the League they currently average 116.5 points per game.

Injuries have put paid to the Disco chances several times this season so in order to combat that recurring issue Headcoach Calum enlists the help of… Greg Jennings? Go figure. It’s a move that smacks of desperation. Murray is still out and Felix Jones is banged up so the former playoff coach turns to St Louis second string Daryl Richardson to inject some fresh impetus into the season. It’s a sorry state of affairs when the loss of the Houston defence threatens to derail their challenge this week.

Riggins have some minor bye week issues as Spiller takes to the Warmers chair, however in comes Bush and Turner who have both been productive so far this season although Turner does have a tough matchup against the Beagles. Rodgers will torch the Jags all day long if the Coaches don’t decide to go easy on the London bound franchise. Floyd will return to face the Browns and Bryant and Cruz will go head to head at Texas stadium in the big NFE East matchup. Question marks still surround what measures Coach Richard will take to mitigate the loss of Davis to a season ending toe injury.

It is reported that both Coaches will be talent spotting at Wembley this weekend which may affect their chances of making last minute changes. Only a fool would back the Disco against the red hot Riggins boys and this week I ain’t no fool. Although it should be noted that if results go the way of the Hairies they could only be one game off the lead!

VERDICT : RIGGINS BY 7

FRENCH LEADER (4-3) v IT’S A LOTTERY (3-4)

Coach Andy.  Not happy.

All time series record : Leader leads 2-0

Last time out : Leader 96 – 89 Lottery

Both teams come into week 8 looking to make amends for choking on the rarified air associated with first place after losing their week 7 matchups. Leader was humbled by an in form Mafia whilst the Lottery cursed the fates that gave them hope with the excellent form of MJD before swiftly taking it away on a medikart!

The big worry for the Frenchman going into this matchup is the dubious form of stand out wide receiver, Megatron. Not only is he off the pace but he missed practice early in the week due to a sore knee. Big Ben returns to the line up after missing last week and has an outstanding opportunity to heap some massive points onto the board against a sometime shambolic Redskins secondary. AP will look to cement his recovery from cruciate agony with a good performance against the Bucs and the Seahawks will prove to be too strong for the Detroit offence.

With MJD out, William Powell retains his spot albeit not down to his week 7 performance but to the fact that Coach Andy has not got a better option. Surely he will raid the waiver wire later this week? Manning Snr is back from his break and will look to torch the Saints. Shady McCoy will be given the ball at least 20 times as the Eagles will run the ball against the Falcons to keep Falcons signal caller Matty on Ice. Welker will be in London and will look for repeat of his previous visit. If Big Ben goes long then Wallace could be the target so it could be a double whammy against Washington this week.

With Steven Jackson on a timeshare and the potential for Megatron to face the fearless French defence much will depend on Big Ben. However with the Lottery owning two of the Steeler receivers French points count for nowt as Lottery pinch join in the fun. Manning will prove he still has it…. Again!

VERDICT : LOTTERY BY 13

SEVENTY NINE FC (4-3) v BONE ROCKS (3-4)

Hilton.  An interesting selection.

All time series record : Series tied 1-1

Last time out : Niners 82 – 89 Boners

After receiving an official warning for not fielding a full team against Ttttaylor despite posting the win Coach Martin will need to make sure that there are no infringements this time round. Coach Lars, despite being ranked dead last in multiple measurable statistical categories is still top of the Central after beating the erratic Warriors posting an unusually high 100 points last week.

The Seventy Nine FC roadshow comes to London this week and Terrific Tom will look to show the Great British public that he has lost none of his talent by pulling the wool over the eyes of the Rams secondary implementing Bills tricky gameplan. Morris has been a revelation for the Redskins but may find it tougher this week against a sturdy Steelers front seven. Richardson insists he will play despite his niggle. TJ Hilton is an interesting selection this week against the Titans.

It’s difficult to understand just how the Rocks are doing it, but doing it they certainly are. Fig Newton will find it tough this week against a savage Bears D. Greene will also find it tough this week against improved Fins play calling and Gore will be in a battle of the trenches in Phoenix. On the plus side the 49ers should limit a limited cards offence and James Jones will see plenty of action now the cat is out of the bag on Cobb.

This matchup is difficult to predict mainly due to the fact that both teams tend to score small but still win! This week it’s the turn of the Boners to take the glory in a match that Riggins alone will score more than.

VERDICT : BONES BY 4

Wins for Factory, Mafia, Swedes, Riggins, Lottery and Rocks brings the Bears back to within one game in the North, the Central is a three way tie at .500 and the factory take sole possession of top spot in the South.

Don’t shoot the messenger.

Just the facts ma’am.

Talking of which, it should be noted that despite reports to the contrary, and the fact we are always happy to take undeserved credit, a full house, clean sweep in the picks was not in fact achieved last week as the decision to plump for the Lottery in last weeks Game of the Week was in fact undone by MJD hobbling off after two plays. Another black mark for Jim I am afraid.

Latest odds supplied by Vasco De Gama

Pauls Polarbears 5-6

Tim Riggins Bench Warmers 5-4

Fear Factory 7-4

Super Swedes 2-1

West Coast mafia 2-1

It’s a Lottery 3-1

Autopick Warriors 7-2

French Leader 4-1

Bone Rocks 6-1

Seventy Nine FC 6-1

Hairy Frog Disco 25-1

Ttttaylor 33-1