A PRECIOUS COMMODITY

Last week saw the League average score required to win a CNFLE IV game dropped from 95.5 pts to 93.77 pts. That sounds quite low to me.

So how does this season fare with previous years?

Admittedly the current average has been taken through only eight games compared to a full regular season but to compare:

Season III averaged 92.9 pts for all 14 weeks

Season II 88.3 pts were enough points to cut the mustard over the course of a season. 

 

Unfortunately the detailed points scored records for season I are not available.

Compare that with the same comparison for the winners points which despite Coach Peter’s near record breaking whammy, the average now stands at 114.75 pts, compared with:

Season III – 119.5 pts

Season II – 113.9 pts

So there you have it, make of it what you will, but evidence clearly suggests that it takes more for our Coaches to win a game in Season IV than it ever has before despite points seemingly becoming a more precious commodity in comparison to last year.

With the standard on the rise, it’s no wonder there are eight teams within one game of each other!

GAME OF THE WEEK

AUTOPICK WARRIORS (4-4) v WEST COAST MAFIA (4-4)

The Guinness Bowl.

All time series record : Warriors lead 1-0

Last time out : Royale 117 – 112 Dnickman

It’s time for the second ever Guinness Bowl as the Coach Conor faces his nemesis Coach Cullen (or is it the other way round) in a battle between two of the most vocal Coaches in the CNFLE. Under their previous guise, the Warriors managed to turn the tables on a Dnickman team that was headed relentlessly towards the playoffs in a rare reverse for the potty mouthed pixie. Both teams are sitting at .500, but whilst the Warriors need the ‘W’ to resurrect their faltering challenge in the North, the Mafia are looking to win their fourth straight to cement the belief that they are the team to beat in a mediocre Central Division.

Rivers has been a disappointment this year, and Coach Conor can always refer back to the non-draft as the reference point for his season long frustration with the Chargers signal caller. Despite managing the game excellently against a very poor Chiefs team on Thursday a yield of only 18.6 is hardly the sort of return the Warriors were looking for. Despite Romo’s 450 yd, 4TD performance last week against the Giants, Coach Cullen sticks with Bucs young gun Freeman who has returned to his 2010 level of performance. Freeman faces the Raiders in what could turn into a shootout. EDGE : MAFIA

Big things were expected of Ryan Mathews this year but following the pre season clavicle injury, the Chargers stud has had massive handling issues and lost touches as a result. After a another decent start against the Chiefs Mathews subsequently faded and posted a sub par 7.2 points. Warriors #1 back, Ravens Rice takes on the Browns and is expected to score well as Baltimore will look to dominate the line of scrimmage. For the Mafia, Forte is very much the number one in the Windy City and CJ2K has returned to some sort of form after a shocking start to the year. Both backs face off against each other in Tennessee, but it will probably be Forte that sees most of the carries as the Titans O line will be overrun by a rampaging sleuth of Bears. EDGE : MAFIA

But for the fumble, Bowe would have contributed a handy 8pts to the Warriors cause as a WR3, which is never to be sneezed at. Fitz is always a favourite target but it seems as if the Cards offence has been found out with Skelton at the helm. Green is still the #1 at the wideout position and despite being double teamed at every set manages to post great numbers and more importantly scores. Against a stubborn Broncos secondary it will be tough but we expect Green to score well again. Vincent Jackson is a man reborn in the Bay and his burgeoning partnership with Freeman has produced positive points in the past few weeks. Sid Rice is the top target in Seattle but their form has dipped and against a Vikings defence that has been resolute will be in for a frustrating afternoon. The Mafia are clearly waiting on the fitness of Nelson before making their final team selections as Hill is on a bye, but the waiver wire beckons as the prognostication on the Packer is unlikely to be positive. EDGE : WARRIORS

The Warriors have the choice between Gonzo or Witten as their tight end. Gonzo has been a stellar performer so far this year, whilst Witten broke all sorts of records last week in Dallas futile effort. Either way it’s a better bet than Jermichael Finley who has been a peripheral figure in the Packers offence despite the continued absence of Greg Jennings. Now that Nelson is set to join Jennings in rehab perhaps the Green Bay veteran will finally get some looks his way. EDGE : WARRIORS

Seabass is the roundest man to have played in the NFL since Morten Anderson all those years ago, but he certainly can welly it. The Bears have been the #1 defence all year long, sacks, picks, fumbles, returns these boys have done the lot and against the Titans will look for another score in the region of 25+. The Mafia also have one of the most reliable kickers in the game in Gould. If you can kick in the Windy City then sun drenched Nashville should be a dream. Despite losing key starters, the Ravens are still a decent bet as a defensive play, however the mauling at the Texans proved that they are hugely susceptible to the run and with Richardson as the key component of the Browns offence it isn’t cut and dried that they will have things all their own way. EDGE : WARRIORS

With only 32 points returned from three of the skill players, the Warriors are slightly behind their target score, we would suggest, however the Mafia has uncertainty at the receiving slot and are significantly weaker on the defensive side of the ball. Dare we say it but much depends on whether CJ2K can get his game going. It’s going to be close, but we see the Warriors edging this one to keep their hands on the Guinness Bowl for another 12 months.

VERDICT : WARRIORS BY 6

BENCH WARMERS (4-4) v TTTTAYLOR (1-7)

Dez.  Doh.

All time series record : Riggins lead 2-1

Last time out : Riggins 108 – 92 Ttttaylor

The lack of movement on the waiver wire finally seems to be hindering the Bench Warmers efforts in the ultra competitive North Division. Dropping a low scoring matchup last week to the struggling Hairies by the width of Dez Bryant’s fingertips would have hurt the Rookie. For Ttttaylor it appears that their title defense it slowly coming to its inevitable painful conclusion after they posted another weekly score that would have beaten 8 of the other CNFLE teams. Unfortunately they happened upon Coach Peter’s Swedes who posted the second highest total in CNFLE history. Them’s the breaks I guess.

After landing on his coccyx, Dez Bryant remains questionable for this week. Rodgers has been stellar over the past few weeks and will look to torch the Cards D to follow up great performances against other vaunted D’s such as the Texans and Niners. After an impressive start to the year, Reggie Bush’s workload seems to have been reduced to a timeshare with Thomas in Miami. The Packers DST should score a heap against a limited Cards offense.

The Ryan – Jones tandem will look to get back on track this week against a Cowboys defence that has been pretty good this year. It will be a tough assignment though. Steve Smith could be in line for a bumper return against a Redskins D that has been sloppy all year. Gresham and Smith both look like good plays coming on from the bench but whether Ttttaylor will make changes remains to be seen.

After Thursdays match, Riggins holds an 11 point advantage but are a man less to play over the weekend. Following the review of the Riggins outlook a case could have been made for an upset alert, however Ttttaylors matchups are dead set against them and Rodgers will have a much better day than Ryan this week.

VERDICT : RIGGINS BY 7 IN A LOW SCORING BATTLE.

SUPER SWEDES (5-3) v FRENCH LEADER (4-4)

Stafford.  Primed for action.

All time series record : Series tied 1-1

Last time out : Swedes 106 – 129 Leader

Both teams sit a game behind their respective Division leader, both teams have over the course of the season so far, underperformed given the personnel on their roster. Both teams need the win to keep hold of their playoff hopes. The Swedes mashed ttttaylor with the second highest score in CNFLE history. A score like that comes around once a year for one team only. In season 2 Botond followed his record breaking effort with a 75 pt implosion. Last year the Disco followed up with a decent 115 so it could go either way. Despite thoroughly enjoying the Wembley game, Coach Laurent failed to break 100 again in a disappointing loss against the underwhelming Lottery.

Is Stafford back? Coach Peter sure hopes so and a matchup against the Jags will show whether he really is back in the groove. Although the Swedes will be cheering each time Stafford drops back, they will still be hoping that the Madden curse continues to grab hold of Megatron who lines up for the Leader. McGahee looks to have a great matchup this week against the Bengals as does fellow Bronco, Thomas. Wayne and Moss both have great opportunities to make their mark on the scorecard. Another big score is sure to follow this week.

Despite being touted for title honours in the South it appears that things are not running entirely smoothly in France and rumours abound that a franchise reboot may soon be forthcoming. The ever dependable AP has a tough matchup against the Shawks and Felix the cat may as well not suit up for all the good he has been in Big D. On the plus side Williams is having a comeback season for the Bucs and Colston is always a big play threat. But what of Megatron? The big fellow is still listed as questionable and although it looks as if he will play, will he be 100%. Tough week again for Laurent.

When your defence scores over twenty points it can be considered a good performance. When you combine a 32 point return with the potential posed by the Swedes then Laurent can just mail this one in. It’s not an if, it’s a how much!

VERDICT : SWEDES BY 20

PAULS POLARBEARS (6-2) v SEVENTY NINE FC (5-3)

Coach Martin.  Nothing but trouble.

All time series record : Niners lead 2-0

Last time out : Baptists 74 – 92 Niners

This match should really have been given the game of the week slot aside from the fact that it wasn’t a Bowl game. A matchup between a pair of division leaders with a combined record of 11-5 suggests that these two are for real. But scratch the surface and it’s a thin layer of ice that these two are skating on. Last week saw the Bears drop their second in three and a loss for the Niners would open the door to all three divisional rivals despite their two game winning streak.

The Bears are starting to shiver. Sproles is definitely out this week which means that Coach Paul will hope Redman gets the nod for the Steelers. Manning Jnr is sporadic in his play this year despite finding ways to win the games for Big Blue. Good news is that Foster is back and will rumble all over the Bills, expect 20+ points from the Texan toter. Denarius Moore could be a good play this week if Palmer decides to air it out. Harvin is still a threat from anywhere on the field and his trickeration will be invaluable if the Vikes hope to keep the Shawks on the back foot.

The Seventy Nine Patriots are decimated by the bye week this week as Brady, Lloyd and Ridley all ride the pine. That’s that then? But not so fast! Bye week replacement, Palmer will be throwing long and often and Morris and Richardson is a backfield duo that would be the envy of many other Coaches. The receivers still look thin but Roberts could grab a TD and a few yards with Fitz being double teamed. Coach Martin will need to make a decision on his defence but it looks a tall order to make up for all the missing Pats this week.

Rumour has it that Coach Martin is still reeling from the keeper league fiasco, where he was fingered as a trouble maker by the Commish, ‘ I just thought it was a good idea’ he reasoned when interviewed at the Wembley game last week, ‘s’all’. In a matchup that could conceivably be Carltonbowl IV, the Baptists at full strength should beat the Patless Niners.

VERDICT : BEARS BY 10

IT’S A LOTTERY (4-4) v FEAR FACTORY (5-3)

Dallas.  One dimensional.

All time series record : Factory lead 2-0

Last time out : Lottery 86 – 103 Factory

Both teams come into this fixture on the back of victories. The Lottery put paid to another South division team last week with a decent total, whereas the Factory scored well under the League average score of 95.5 to down a disappointing Autopick side. As it stands the Lottery head up the Central and are making a real play for the playoffs whilst the Factory are thick in the mix in the South. This match may reveal which one of these teams is for real.

Lottery will be loving the Manning Snr matchup this week as the Broncos should torch the Bengals secondary all day long. It will be a double whammy for Coach Andy as double Decker will benefit as well. Despite being in a west coast offensive scheme this may be the week that McCoy comes out of the shade as Eagles coach Reid will try to manage the Vick factor. Colts back Brown is a good pick up from the wire, but he will struggle this week against the Dolphins who have been dynamite against the run. We like Wallace for a long score this week as the Pittsburgh burner has the measure of a Giants secondary so long as the offensive line can give Big Ben time to throw.

Coach Botond has put together a decent run winning the last three but only breaking the league average once. This week Brees may find it tougher in Philly than previously. Austin is benefitting from the one dimensional Dallas game planning and Marshall is a menace to any calibre of secondary. The problems for the Factory this week however are in the running game as Fred Jackson will struggle against the Texans and Leshoure did not practice which poses questions over his fitness. Will the decision to keep the Cards in against the Packers backfire on Botond?.

Despite the decent return from Gates after the Thursday game the matchups for the Factory are not favourable this week and the Denver connection gives the Lottery a distinct head start. Dare we dream but will the Lottery be sitting pretty at the top of the Central with a .555 record? Will wonders never cease?

VERDICT : LOTTERY BY 13

HAIRY FROG DISCO (3-5) v BONE ROCKS (3-5)

Coach Calum and Coach Lars meet for a pre match pint.

All time series record : Rocks leads 2-0

Last time out : Disco 99 – 121 Rocks

So it’s a quick drink in the last chance saloon for these two teams. The bartender lines them up. One glass is filled with hope and another with a deadly poison. Mix them up, choose one gents and hope for the best. To lose here and the season is over. Despite scoring the fewest points by quite some distance the Bones have managed to pilfer three wins but dropped a loss to the Niners last week registering a score in the 70’s for the 4^th time. Despite only mustering only 85 points, Coach Calum maintained his Indian sign over the Riggins boys to improve to .375 and keep their faint playoff hopes alive.

After finally breaking their four game skid last week, Coach Calum will be looking forward to RGIII ripping through the Panthers defence in the air and on the ground. In the same game, waiver pick up Stewart also has a nice matchup and now that he is the confirmed #1 in Carolina should post a decent tally. With four of the Hairies top 5 picks riding the pine at the time of going to press questions have to be asked about the Discos draft strategy. Jackson could have a monster day against a Saints secondary that is weak. Texans to shred the Bills.

The Bone Rocks either score 75 or they score 100, which is it to be this week? With Coach Lars 49ers on a bye the Rocks team looks shorn of its obvious talent and with Shonn Greene as the bye week replacement also on a bye, a move must be made and quick to fill the roster. Shaub and Johnson look a good bet to connect all day long against the Bills and Doug Martin is one of the finds of the season and should run the ball well in Oakland. The Broncos come in for the 49ers D, but it could be a shootout in Cincy. It’s a 75 point week then.

It’s difficult to believe that Coach Calum will keep his ‘a’ list players all on the bench, but if the Hairies can grab the ‘W’ and the other results fall their way, playoff hope could spring eternal. After promising start, proving the pundits wrong, a loss here and the naysayers will be hollering, ‘the Rocks are who we thought they are! They are who we thought they are!’ And they are.

VERDICT : HAIRIES BY 10

So then, wins for Warriors, Riggins, Swedes, Bears, Lottery and Disco as the North take another clean sweep to leave things as they are, Lottery take a game lead in the Central and the Disco move to within a game in the South. It’s still anyones to win.

Apart from Ttttaylor of course.

Don’t shoot the messenger.

Just the facts ma’am.

Latest odds supplied by Vasco De Gama

Pauls Polarbears 5-6

It’s A Lottery 7-4

Super Swedes 2-1

Fear Factory 2-1

Seventy Nine FC 5-2

West Coast Mafia 5-2

Tim Riggins Bench Warmers 4-1

Autopick Warriors 4-1

French Leader 5-1

Hairy Frog Disco 10-1

Bone Rocks 16-1

Ttttaylor 50-1